Most seed-versus-seed results need to be taken with a grain of salt (and a shot of tequila followed by a lime wedge), however there's no denying the No. 12 versus No. 5 March Madness trend. Despite the randomness, this pairing continues to produce profits for those choosing the No. 12 seed - at least versus the spread.
Since 2012, No. 5 seeds are 27-21 SU versus No. 12 seeds and 20-27-1 ATS in those opening-round matches. Over the past 5 Big Dances (remembering we didn't have one in 2020), No. 5 seeds are 12-8 SU and 9-11 ATS, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the 2024 competition Round of 64.
Don't just blindly wager on No. 12 seeds over No. 5's but treat this trend with respect - like dealing with a cobra.
Three trends to fade
There's a surplus of shallow March Madness wagering patterns out there that you must never ever blindly track when putting your bets or building your bracket. Here's the pointer of the iceberg.
Conference trends
Certain conferences will have more powerful historical ATS records in the NCAA Tournament, however the groups, challengers, players and spreads all vary when constructing out this bull crap. The overall strength of conferences sways every year, so do not go chasing after the SEC teams or fading ACC schools based solely on those conferences' counts against the spread.
Seed vs. Seed trends
We've singled out the No. 5-versus-No. 12 trend, which ruined a great deal of "savvy" brackets with all four No. 5 seeds advancing in 2023. Bettors must tread gently with that info and more so with other trends around seed-versus-seed. The level of parity in college basketball seems to be expanding by the season, so don't base a bet solely on the Selection Committee's seeding.
Point spread and Over/Under trends
Brace yourself for some doozies when it pertains to any historical NCAA Tournament patterns powered by spreads and totals. You'll get alluring trends around the Round of 64 underdogs in between a particular point range and Over/Under ideas based upon past overalls from certain seeding matchups.
As pointed out, some trends can lead you down the ideal handicapping roadway however much of these take you and your bankroll to a dead end. Be doubtful of these trends and look into the past outcomes that powered them. If you can, attempt to find a narrative behind them that might roll over into this year's March Madness field.
How sportsbooks deal with March Madness patterns
Perhaps the very best way to determine how beneficial March Madness betting patterns are is to look at the folks setting the chances for March Madness.
If you ask an oddsmaker if they're factoring in the past versus the spread (ATS) success of No. 15 seeds into this year's No. 2-versus-No. 15 matchup chances, they'll likely laugh in your face. Bookmakers mainly disregard historic patterns, particularly in college sports, as player and ability turnover varies greatly from year-to-year.
Oddsmakers base their numbers on existing form and data from that season rather than historical hoo-ha pulling from random groups with random gamers led by random coaches from random conferences playing at random sites. You get the idea.
The on March Madness trends
Basketball wagerers ought to watch out for numerous March Madness trends. While wagering on them blindly is bonkers, there are lessons to be discovered from assessing them and detecting past patterns.
Veteran handicapper Marc Lawrence has a huge sports betting database that pumps out several March Madness wagering patterns every year. And while he does not jump on board all those with his NCAA Tournament bets, he sees the worth in what he calls "expecting expectancy".
"There is a factor that Winston Churchill stated, 'Those who fail to learn from history are destined repeat it,'" Lawrence states. "By learning failures and successes from the past and applying skills from today, we progress, well-rounded handicappers. Yes, teams alter, but techniques and patterns are extremely predictive ... By relying on past patterns, we can much better anticipate expectancy."
March Madness betting sites
March Madness is an incredibly popular season for sports bettors and one of the busiest for online sportsbooks. With every betting website offering March Madness chances, it's essential to understand which are safe and protected, offer a wide range of banking options, and provide you a lots of markets for each game. Have a look at the very best March Madness wagering sites in your region, evaluated by Covers' group of knowledgeable specialists.
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March Madness Trends: 3 to Trust and 3 To Avoid
Izetta Lyons edited this page 2026-04-23 01:35:13 +00:00